It is Further Evidence that the Social Media Company May Be Too Big for its Own Good

With normal life resuming in many parts of the country, the path out of this pandemic in the US is clear: reach herd immunity through COVID vaccines. However, many people in the US are refusing to get vaccinated, leading to a slowing vaccination rate across the country.

Rates have declined…


Market Concentration Concerns Dominate Many Other Industries Beyond the Tech Sector

After years of lax regulations, governments around the world are flexing their antitrust muscles to corral big tech firms. This has heated up in the US where the Justice Department and FTC have brought cases against Google, Facebook, and others. …


The 17th century was the height of Dutch power, known as the Dutch Golden Age, that saw the Netherlands excel in trade, art, and military power. During this period its citizens had the highest per capita income in the world, and that wealth allowed them to purchase luxury items from…


The Long Night from Game of Thrones was one of the most memorable episodes of television ever. In the face of an impossible onslaught of White Walkers, there was a moment in the beginning of the battle that alluded to hope in the face of incredible odds. …


Forecasting Retrospective

The final forecast our model gave for the 2020 election was that Biden was likely to win with an 80% probability compared to Trump with a 20% probability. It expected him to win around 333 electoral votes with an 80% confidence interval of 239 to 407 and win the popular…


With the early results in, it is clear that the election is closer than the expected results from our forecast. It appears that polls broke in favor of Trump at the end, confirming signs we saw in some of the recent polls leading up to election day in key states.


In previous posts we provided detailed senate and presidential forecasts for the upcoming elections on November 3.

Here we update those forecasts with the latest polls as of November 2, the day before election day.

Using the latest economic data and national and state polls, we have seen the fundamental…


(See here for the Senate forecast)

The 2020 election is rightly seen as a defining moment in American politics. Biden and Trump each have vastly different visions and plans for America. Who wins the election will reveal which vision voters want.

To understand who is likely to win the presidency…


The Answer is Key to the Future of American Democracy

(See here for the Presidential forecast)

Currently, Democrats are favored to win both the house and the presidency, making which party controls the senate of paramount importance.

If Democrats control the senate, then they stand a strong chance of controlling both legislative houses and the presidency, creating a unified government…

Vinod Bakthavachalam

I am interested in politics, economics, & policy. I work as a data scientist and am passionate about using technology to solve structural economic problems.

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