Thanks, I completely agree the transition will be painful, and there is a huge role for good policy to ease the transition as adjustment costs will be high.
I understand the benefits of UBI, and the impact it has had in various places (inflation is less of a concern for me because the underlying economic factors suggest inflation today is too low anyway). Unconstrained cash is generally a good policy as well to impact lives.
My main points in this article are that the way people think about AI impacting the economy are generally wrong, and the real problem it will cause is adjustment costs in the labor market.
There are several potential ways to deal with that adjustment cost, of which UBI is one. I am not sold as UBI being a universal solution to that for many reasons, but mainly because people like to work for various reasons. A better solution is my mind is a comprehensive set of policies designed to provide people a path to work in the new areas that AI increases demand for while creating a safety net for those that either end up unemployed, with the wrong skills, etc.
This basket of policies could take on things like wage insurance to ensure employed people’s incomes don’t drop, access to low cost, high quality training, occupational licensing reform, etc. The exact mix of policies in debatable, and there are a lot of good things going for UBI even if it is not perfect as a piece of this basket.
The main point is to understand how technology really affects the economy and that we need to do something more than will likely happen with the current government.